Pausing a SIP in a Fall: Nine Falls Since 2008, and What Pausing Cost
A SIP started two years ago is showing a loss, and pausing it feels like the careful thing to do. Here is what pausing cost in every fall of 10% or more since 2008, including the one time it would have helped.
Figures checked · How we calculate
−4.8%a ₹10,000 monthly Nifty SIP started in October 2024, after 25 instalments, on 16 October 2026
You have paid in ₹2.5 lakh and it is worth ₹2,38,011, measured on the Nifty 50's price. With dividends, which an index fund reinvests, the loss is about 3.6%. A SIP started at the January 2026 peak is down 4.0% after ten instalments.
The Nifty 50 closed at 26,329 on 2 January 2026, its highest ever. On 8 October it closed at 22,232, 15.6% lower, and on 16 October at 23,146, still 12.1% below the peak. It is lower than it was in September 2024. Two years of SIP instalments have bought, on average, nothing.
The Nifty has fallen 10% or more nine times since 2008, and recovered every time
| Peak | Fall, peak to low | Months until the old peak was regained | SIP instalments paid during the fall |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2008 | 59.9% | 34 | 34 |
| November 2010 | 27.9% | 36 | 33 |
| March 2015 | 22.5% | 24 | 22 |
| January 2018 | 10.2% | 6 | 4 |
| August 2018 | 14.6% | 8 | 6 |
| June 2019 | 11.4% | 6 | 3 |
| January 2020 | 38.4% | 10 | 8 |
| October 2021 | 17.2% | 13 | 11 |
| September 2024 | 15.8% | 15 | 14 |
| January 2026 | 15.6% so far | Not yet | 7 so far |
Two of those recoveries took about three years. Most took under fifteen months. Nothing in the table tells you which kind 2026 is.
Continuing beat pausing and catching up, in all nine
Take two investors with a ₹10,000 monthly SIP. One keeps paying. The other stops once the Nifty is 10% below its peak, keeps the instalments in cash, and invests all of it on the day the Nifty gets back to its old peak.
On that day, the instalments the first investor paid during the fall were worth more than the second investor's catch-up lump sum in every one of the nine falls:
- 2008: ₹3.4 lakh paid during the fall was worth ₹1,56,885 more, 46%.
- 2020: ₹80,000 was worth ₹17,032 more, 21%.
- September 2024: ₹1.4 lakh was worth ₹10,547 more, 7.5%.
- The smallest gap, January 2018, was 5.4%.
That result is built in. Every month below the peak is a cheaper price than the peak itself, so restarting at the old peak always pays more per unit. The only question is how much more, and it is largest in the deepest, longest falls, which are the ones that tempt people to stop.
Pausing for a year and never catching up cost more
Most people who pause do not invest the skipped money later. It stays in a savings account or gets spent. That is the case the SIP planning guide prices with an assumed 12% return. Here it is with the real Nifty.
- 2019 fall: skipped from September 2019₹2.7 L2.25 times the ₹1.2 lakh skipped. The best of the nine.
- 2020 crash: skipped from April 2020₹2.4 LTwice what was skipped. These were the cheapest months in a decade.
- 2008 crash: skipped from February 2008₹1.8 L
- 2015 fall: skipped from June 2015₹1.4 LThe smallest of the seven falls with five full years since.
- 2024 fall: skipped from December 2024, valued today₹1.1 LLess than the ₹1.2 lakh skipped. In this fall, pausing has been right so far.
Nifty 50 closing prices, without dividends, buying on the first trading day of each month. The 2021 and 2024 falls are valued on 16 October 2026, less than five years later. You skipped ₹1.2 lakh in each case.
In seven of the nine falls, the ₹1.2 lakh of skipped instalments would have been worth between 1.16 and 2.25 times as much five years on. In the 2021 fall it is 1.34 times so far.
The exception is the most recent. Twelve instalments skipped from December 2024 would be worth ₹1,14,655 today, less than the ₹1.2 lakh paid. Pausing in that fall has been right so far, because the Nifty is still lower than when those instalments were made. Whether it stays right depends on what the Nifty does next, and nobody knows that.
A SIP can show a loss for years, and has
A SIP started the month after the January 2008 peak was, at its worst, 44.8% below the money paid in, and last showed a loss on 20 December 2011, almost four years later. One started after the March 2015 peak was still dipping below cost in May 2020, more than five years in, because the 2020 crash arrived before it had pulled clear.
Neither of those investors did anything wrong, and both recovered. By June 2014 the 2008 SIP was worth 53% more than the ₹7.7 lakh paid in. By December 2020 the 2015 SIP was 44% ahead of its ₹6.9 lakh. A SIP removes the need to choose when to invest. It does not remove the years when the statement is red.
What to do instead of pausing
- Lower the amount, not to zero. If the instalment has become hard to pay, cut it. The units bought in a fall are the valuable ones, so a smaller SIP keeps more of the benefit than a paused one.
- Move money that is due soon. Anything needed within about three years, for a fee, a deposit or a wedding, does not belong in an equity fund in any market. Move it to a debt fund or a deposit, and do it because of the date, not the fall.
- Check your mix once, not every day. If equities have fallen below the share you set, the rebalancing tool shows how much to move back in. That is the opposite of pausing.
- Stop checking the statement. A falling market changes your units' price, not their number. The number is what recovers.
Run your own SIP through the SIP calculator, and the periodic return calculator shows what a real fund has returned over the dates you choose.
Frequently asked questions
Is the market going to fall further? Nobody knows. The Nifty was 15.6% below its peak on 8 October and 12.1% below on 16 October. In 2008 it fell 59.9% before it stopped. In 2018 it stopped at 10.2%. Nothing published in advance told anyone which one they were in.
Should I put in a lump sum now, while prices are lower? Only money you would invest anyway and not need for five years or more. A lump sum invested on 12 March 2026, the day this fall first reached 10%, is still 2.1% down. Lower is not the same as the bottom. Spreading it over six to twelve months costs a little if the market recovers fast and protects you if it does not.
What if I need the money in two years? Then it should not be in an equity fund, fall or no fall. Two of the nine recoveries took about three years.
Where do these figures come from? Daily closing prices of the Nifty 50 index from September 2007 to 16 October 2026. SIP instalments are bought at the close on the first trading day of each month. The figures leave out dividends, which add about 1.25 percentage points a year, by NSE's own price and total return figures for the five years to 30 September 2026. Including them would make continuing look slightly better in every case.