Dhanteras Gold vs the Nifty: The Winner Depended on When You Checked

Dhanteras 2026 is on Friday, 6 November. Here is what seventeen years of Dhanteras purchases would have earned, in gold and in the Nifty 50.

₹8.5 lakh in, and the lead changed hands four times

The same ₹50,000 each Dhanteras, valued at every later Dhanteras and today.

Anyone who wrote "gold beats shares" in 2013 was right, and so was anyone who wrote the opposite in 2019 or 2024.

Measured as an annual return on each purchase, gold earned 14.4% a year and the Nifty 9.7%. The Nifty figure leaves out dividends, which add roughly 1.3 percentage points a year. Gold still comes out ahead today, but by less than the last row suggests, and two years ago it was behind.

Gold won 11 of 16 Dhanteras years, and once fell 27% over three years

Year by year, from one Dhanteras to the next, gold did better than the Nifty in eleven of sixteen years. Its good years were very good: up 34% in 2010–11, when the Nifty fell 17%, and up 63% in 2024–25, when the Nifty rose 5%.

Its bad stretch was long. From November 2012 to August 2015, gold fell 27.4% and stayed down for almost three years, while the Nifty rose. Anyone who bought gold on Dhanteras 2012, after a run of good years, was below their purchase price as late as July 2019.

That is the case for holding both. In six of the sixteen years, one rose while the other fell, so a portfolio with some of each swings less than one with either alone. It is not the case for moving everything into whichever won last.

Jewellery costs you before the price moves at all

On a ready-made piece, GST is 3% of the whole bill, making charge included. Making charges vary with the jeweller and the design; this page assumes 12%. Per ₹50,000 spent, that leaves ₹43,343 of gold.

• Gold ETF or gold fund₹34.6 LNo GST. The fund's expenses are already in the price.
• Coins or bars₹32.6 LAssumes a 3% dealer premium plus 3% GST: ₹47,130 of gold for each ₹50,000.
• Jewellery₹30.0 LAssumes a 12% making charge plus 3% GST: ₹43,343 of gold for each ₹50,000.
• What the jewellery route cost₹4.6 LAgainst the ETF, from the same 17 purchases and the same gold price. Resale deductions at the jeweller would add to it.

The same 17 purchase dates and the same domestic gold price for all three. The coin premium and making charge are assumptions; your bill will show the real ones.

Selling jewellery back loses more. Jewellers usually buy back at the gold value, sometimes less a deduction, and the making charge is never returned. Jewellery is a fine thing to buy because you want to wear it. As an investment, it starts 13% behind.

If gold is for investment, buy it without the necklace

• Gold ETF. Listed on the exchange, bought through a demat account. Gains on units held more than 12 months are taxed at 12.5%, plus cess.
• Gold fund. A mutual fund that buys a gold ETF, for anyone without a demat account. Gains become long-term only after 24 months.
• Coins and bars. No making charge on plain bullion from a bank or a reputable dealer, but 3% GST and a dealer premium. Long-term after 24 months.
• Sovereign Gold Bonds. The government has not issued new ones since February 2024. Bonds already issued can still be bought on the exchange.

How much gold to hold is a question about your whole portfolio, not about Dhanteras. Set a share once with the portfolio allocation tool, then use Dhanteras each year as the day you check it with the rebalancing tool. After a year like 2024–25, that means selling some gold, not buying more.

Frequently asked questions

When is Dhanteras in 2026? On Friday, 6 November 2026, two days before Diwali.

Is gold a better investment than shares? Over 2009 to 2026, gold bought every Dhanteras earned more than the Nifty. Over 2009 to 2024 it earned less. Over the next seventeen years, nobody knows. Holding a fixed share of each and rebalancing removes the need to guess.

Why use a gold ETF's price for gold? It tracks the domestic price of gold, which includes import duty, and its fees are already deducted, so it is what an investor could actually have earned. The Nifty figures are the index's daily closing prices, without dividends.

Is digital gold the same as a gold ETF? No. Digital gold sold through apps is not regulated by SEBI, carries 3% GST on purchase, and counts as physical gold for tax. A gold ETF or gold fund is regulated and pays no GST.

Where do the figures come from? Daily prices of Nippon India Gold BeES, a gold ETF, and the Nifty 50 index, from 2009 to 25 September 2026, using the last close on or before each Dhanteras.